MELBOURNE: On Aug 27, Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, told the newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkianbetmnl online casino, and his Cabinet that talking to the enemy may be useful.

In a thinly veiled reference to Iran’s engagement with the international community - and specifically the United States - Khamenei said Iran should not pin its hopes on such engagement, but that is no reason not to hold talks with the enemy.

This is the kind of green light that Pezeshkian needs to engage again with the International Atomic Energy Agency and Western countries on Iran’s nuclear programme, and to engage with international interlocutors over its heightened tensions with Israel.

This statement seems to signal a desire to walk back from the brink of an all-out war with Israel over the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil in July and revert back to the mutual deterrence that had defined their relationship for years.

This, however, may not be an option given how much the region has changed over the past year.

CROSSING A THRESHOLD IN APRIL

In April this year, Israel targeted Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus, killing members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

This led to a carefully choreographed Iranian response. Iran could not ignore the Israeli attack, which the authorities condemned as an assault on Iranian sovereign territory, but did not wish to go into war with Israel.

As a result, Iran reportedly gave advance warning of its impending response, which allowed Israel and its allies to shoot down most of the 300-odd missiles and drone fired from Iran.

This response was nonetheless seen as a victory in Iran, as it demonstrated its technological capacity to reach Israel. It also marked a departure from Iran’s default position of talking tough, but not getting involved in direct confrontation.

Iran clearly crossed a threshold in April, but seems very uneasy about the consequences.

Then, on Jul 31, Haniyeh was assassinated while on a visit to Iran. Although Israel has neither confirmed or denied responsibility, it is widely believed to have been behind it.

This has put the Iranian leadership in a bind. There have been calls from hardliners for retaliation to restore Iran’s image as a country that can defend itself and avenge the killing of a close ally. Khamenei has also insisted Israel will be punished for its action, but the time would be of Iran’s choosing.

It is clear the Iranian leadership cannot afford to look weak and risk damaging their standing among their allies and proxies in the region, which include Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and other Shi'a militant groups in Iraq and Syria. But there are also other considerations that weigh heavily on their mind.

Related:Snap Insight: Israel and Hezbollah exchange heavy fire, but all eyes are on Iran Commentary: Iran has vowed ‘harsh punishment’ for Ismail Haniyeh’s killing, but how likely is all-out war with Israel? A CRISIS OF LEGITIMACY

A direct response to Israel could open a Pandora’s box. It would pave the way for further direct attacks by Israel, perhaps even targeted assassinations of Iranian leaders.

This is a real possibility. Israel has demonstrated its willingness to respond to any threat with force under the rubric of self-defence. It has also demonstrated its ability to carry out precision attacks in Iran, such as its retaliatory strike on a radar system in the city of Isfahan after Iran’s missile and drone attack in April.

Furthermore, such escalation presents the real risk of drawing the United States into the conflict.

The Iranian leadership has made an art of brinksmanship. Anti-Americanism is ingrained in the political discourse of the political elite and frames Iranian foreign policy. But Iran has so far avoided war with the United States, because that could risk everything.

The reason: Iran’s leaders are already nervous about their political future, and conflict with Israel and the US could seriously exacerbate the situation.

There is a major disconnect between large segments of society and the ruling regime at the moment.

Two years ago, Iran was rocked by spontaneous anti-regime mass protests under the banner of “Woman, Life, Freedom”. They started in response to the death of Mahsa Amini in custody for not wearing her hijab properly, but soon morphed into an anti-establishment revolt that called for the “fall of dictatorship” and an end to the Islamic regime.

The revolt was put down by forcebetmnl online casino, arbitrary detentions and executions.

People light a fire during a protest over the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman who died after being arrested by the Islamic republic's "morality police", in Tehran, Iran Sep 21, 2022. (Photo: WANA via Reuters)

• Is
• and
• betmnl online casino
• Iran
• Commentary